Quarterly Strategic Outlook – October 2019


Summary:

High levels of uncertainty generated by ongoing trade tensions is a continuing drag on global economic growth. The uncertainty is keeping business confidence suppressed, leading to a reluctance to invest.

This is mostly evident in manufacturing where global manufacturing PMIs are in contraction territory.

Uncertainty will remain for a while, and the longer the uncertainty lasts, the deeper the manufacturing recession and the greater the risk the weakness spills over into the broader economy.

Read more on our outlook for the New Zealand and global economies, and across asset classes, in the October 2019 edition of Quarterly Strategic Outlook. READ MORE HERE

Conclusion:

AMP Capital are of the view that while they still expect moderately positive returns for growth assets overall this year, there are many risks that could push the markets periodically downwards.

Nevertheless, they believe volatility and periodic downward market moves restore some value and prevent dangerous euphoria developing, and that the ultimate trend will be towards higher international equity markets into 2020.


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